Forex Fundamentals – analysis for week commencing 2nd March 2015. Ecb minutes and NFP
Here is your free weekly fundamental analysis on the 2nd of March, 2015
The main events from last week that should set the sentiment for the week moving forward were as follows:
Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress was one event traders were really looking at closely – she opened the testimony saying that a rate hike could happen any time soon and the market in favour the U.S. dollar when it was said, though the move was brief.
In the end, there was little change in terms of the sentiment on the U.S. dollar so we ended the week fairly bullishly, and the addition of strong inflation figures last week add to that sentiment moving forwards into this week.
Elsewhere over the bank of England started he had close how been saying their rate hike could happen sooner than we expect, and we saw the Cable strengthen throughout last week.
The AUD took a turn to the downside last week following poor Capex figures which have caused the market expectation for a rate cut to develop during tomorrow’s rate decision release. This slump on the AUD value was fuelled by the Bank of China rate cut this morning.
Two main things to look for this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and the NFP on Friday.
In the ECB meeting we also expect to see further information on the QE launch and the sovereign buying. Inflation forecasts could be lowered while we could see higher GDP forecasts.
Non Farm Payrolls have been coming out higher than expected each month. This month is an important one because If we see further strong figures alongside sustained wage growth, then the rate hike could be brought forward.
Have a great week!